The Kansas City December wheat futures contract price fell another 3 cents (a total of 7 cents). The CBT December corn futures price gained another eight cents. The corn price change did break the price downtrend, at least for the time being.
Unless Argentina’s and/or Australia’s wheat productions are significantly less than expected and/or U.S. 2014 winter wheat production expectations are well below average, wheat prices are not expected to increase more than another 50 to 60 cents per bushel.
Some commercial sources may provide (replace) much of USDA’s reported data. However, the general consensus is that commercial sources may not be as accurate, consistent, and unbiased as what USDA provides.
After the Kansas City (KC) December wheat contract price went above the $7.07 price resistance level, the contract price broke the $7.28 resistance in three days and challenged the $7.60 resistance in six days. KC December wheat prices increased from $7.05 to $7.57.
Wheat export demand has remained relatively strong. At this writing, the bushels of all classes of wheat sold for export is 38 percent greater than at this time last year. The amount of hard red winter wheat sold for export is 32 percent greater than last year, and for soft red winter wheat sold for export, the amount is 210 percent higher than last year.
Larger wheat and corn crops are pressuring wheat prices and could push KC December wheat possibly down to contract $6.30 per bushel. The price risk is that the seasonal price trend is normally set in late-August and early-September.