Kim Anderson

Kim
Anderson
Oklahoma State University
Articles
wheat harvest
You don’t short a sleeping market
Wheat export demand has remained relatively strong. At this writing, the bushels of all classes of wheat sold for export is 38 percent greater than at this time last year. The amount of hard red winter wheat sold for export is 32 percent greater than last year, and for soft red winter wheat sold for export, the amount is 210 percent higher than last year.
wheat harvest
Wheat prices on a slippery slope
Larger wheat and corn crops are pressuring wheat prices and could push KC December wheat possibly down to contract $6.30 per bushel. The price risk is that the seasonal price trend is normally set in late-August and early-September.
wheat harvest
Wheat planning and planting time not too early to think about price
As planting time nears, Southwest wheat producers begin thinking about marketing the 2014 crop.
Wheat stocks the tightest since 2007
U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to be the lowest since the 2007/08 marketing year but world production will weigh down the markets.
A 35 cent above average wheat basis 2
The wheat basis for most of Oklahoma is a minus 7 cents basis the KCBT September wheat contract price. The Texas Panhandle wheat basis is mostly a minus 25 cents. These are about 35 cents above the five-year average.
Should wheat producers store for higher prices? 3
Cash wheat prices have declined from $8 in late January to about $6.80 at this writing (note about 15 cents above when I replied to the email). Since last January, the KC Red Wheat September wheat contract price has declined from $8.72 to $6.91. The cash price declined about $1.40, while futures prices declined $1.81. The KC September basis increased 41 cents.
How much would you risk for $9 wheat? 3
Are wheat producers willing to risk having to sell wheat at $6 for the opportunity to sell wheat at $9? This risk may be avoided by selling wheat for $7.35.
Is this the year to sell or store wheat?
If your marketing strategy has been to sell wheat in one-third increments between harvest and January 1, this may be the year to sell a higher percentage at harvest.
Wheat market prices increase $2.75
Increased price volatility and changes in the marketing-year price trends may require changes in marketing strategies.
Good marketing takes price savvy
Be prepared to recognize and take advantage of wheat pricing opportunities.
Wheat: maybe it’s not that bad?
Current production expectations indicate that the average June 2013 wheat price is expected to be near $7.
Is it too late to price harvest wheat?
If a producer can’t afford to sell wheat for, say, $6.25, than $6.95 is a good opportunity to forward price wheat.
A wheat and corn weather market
Corn prices are dependent on corn production. Wheat prices are dependent on wheat production and corn production. Both wheat and corn production are dependent on the weather.
Wheat’s weather forecast problem
Weather continues to be dominant factor in wheat market.
Some producers still own 2012 harvested wheat
Hindsight is nearly always 20/20. If prices could have been know with certainty, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle wheat would have been sold on July 20, 2012 for about $9 per bushel. Wheat prices had increased from $6 on June 1 to $9 on July 20, 2012.
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