Kim Anderson

Oklahoma State University
Wheat and grain prices established in bottom tier
Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices may stay in the $4.25 to $5.75 price range, which is in the bottom tier of prices.
PLC versus ARC may depend on the dollar index
The most important and uncertain market factor may be the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, which will likely influence whether PLC or ARC will be the most profitable decision.
$5.10 wheat marketing year average price
A major difference between 2010/11 and 2015/16 is the value of the dollar compared to other major currencies
Market funds messing with wheat prices
Market factors (such as the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies) impact wheat prices more than market fund trading.
Higher U.S dollar index, lower wheat prices
Since late June, the price of wheat in Oklahoma and Texas has declined about $1.90 or 27 percent. About 70 percent ($1.33) of the $1.90 price decline may be attributed to the lower dollar value.
Wheat prices indicate zero profit per acre.
Wheat may be forward contracted for harvest delivery for about 30 cents less than the KC July wheat contract price. The basis range is from a minus 50 cents (southern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle) to a minus 15 cents (north central Oklahoma). Using a KC July wheat contract price of $5.65, the harvest forward contract price would be $5.35 ($5.65 - $0.30).
Oil and corn prices a lesson to wheat producers
By the end of September 2014, wheat prices had fallen to $5.30, which is not nearly as low as wheat prices could go.
Harvest is best time to sell wheat
Research indicates that for Oklahoma, Texas, and Southwestern Kansas, the single best time to sell wheat year-end and year-out is at harvest
Wheat price trend tilting to the upside
Since the October’s KC March contract low price of $5.54, each price peak has been higher than the last peak, and each price low has been higher than the last low price.
Wheat prices: 88 up and 14 down
A 10 cent increase in the wheat basis occurred on December 3, which was probably due to lower transportation rates.
Wheat production costs and price
Production costs are essential to determine what the market price means to the farm enterprise.
Weakness in wheat prices is not good
The good news is that the downtrend that began in mid-June has been broken. The bad news is that the KC wheat contract price has not been above $6.20 to establish an uptrend,
Numbers don’t lie but can they be deceiving?
The key is having product to sell with the cost of production below the price times quantity produced.
How low can wheat prices go?
If producers want to use the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO), they must sign up for SCO with their crop insurance agent by September 30, 2014.
2014 government wheat program and selling wheat
The 2014 government program may affect what crops are produced but should not affect how the crops are sold.
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