Kim Anderson

Kim
Anderson
Oklahoma State University
Articles
Wheat’s corn price problem
The Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) December wheat contract price is about 43 cents higher than the KCBT March contract price. This implies that Kansas City wheat prices are expected to increase 43 cents between now and December.
Wheat prices and yields
Since prices broke out of the five-month sideways pattern on December 1l, KCBT March wheat contract prices have declined about 80 cents. At this writing, the Kansas City Board of Trade March contract price is $8.15. The KCBT March contract price has support at about $8 and resistance at about $8.50.
Wheat prices fall $1.47
On December 12, wheat prices broke out the bottom side of a five-month sideways trading pattern. Using KCBT March Wheat contract prices, the price spread from the top ($9.62 on Aug. 10, Sept. 14, and Nov 9.) to the bottom ($8.80) was 82 cents. At this writing, wheat prices are $1.47 below the $9.62 top and 64 cents from the bottom price.
The perfect 2012 wheat marketing plan
The perfect wheat marketing plan for 2012 harvested wheat would have been to sell all the wheat on Friday, July 20, 2012. The Central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle price was about $9.05.
Wheat prices could be $6
In mid-June 2012, Oklahoma and Texas cash wheat prices were near $6 per bushel. The wheat harvest was running about two weeks ahead of average. The USDA was projecting that wheat ending stock would decline from 728 million bushels for the 2011/12 marketing year to 694 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year. World wheat ending stocks were projected to be 6.91 billion bushels compared to 7.2 billion bushel the year before
Don’t worry about wheat prices
At this writing, the cash wheat price in Perryton, Texas, is $8.25 and the price in Medford, Oklahoma, is $8.28. Wheat may be forward contracted for harvest delivery for $8.40 (-55 cents KCBT July 20113 contract) at the Perryton and Medford elevators. Some producers are worried about protecting these relatively high prices.
Wheat and grain markets buying time
Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) December wheat contract prices have been trading in a sideways price pattern between $8.69 and $9.57 since July 13 (Friday the 13th). Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) December corn contract prices have been in a sideways price pattern between $7.33 and $7.76 since September 28. Few market signals are indicating that wheat or corn futures prices will break out of the sideways patterns in the near future.
The only way to make a profit is to sell
Now that prices are relatively high, the only way to take advantage of the higher than expected prices is to sell your wheat! Note what the funds are doing.
Can the market justify $6 wheat?
Wheat prices increased (in my opinion) an economically unjustified 76 percent. Prices then declined to about 60 percent of June 2010 wheat prices.
Are higher wheat prices possible?
Two weeks before this article was written, wheat prices were predicted to increase 50 cents between early June and
Market paying storage and interest
At this writing, the spreads (differences) between the Kansas City Board of Trade wheat contracts cover wheat storage
2010 wheat production and price
Based on the Kansas City Board of Trade July wheat contract price ($5.20) and a minus 80-cent basis, the market is
Market 2010 harvested wheat now
Nearly all of the 2009 harvested wheat has been sold. Top dressing 2010 wheat is nearly complete. Stockers are off the
Smoke, mirrors and funds drive wheat prices
Weather and its impact on wheat yields (production) will determine the 2010-2011 wheat marketing year supply. Supply
Producers take advantage of wheat price rallies
Wheat prices rallied about 15 cents. Producers with wheat in storage sold the rally and prices fell up to 23 cents the
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