Kim Anderson

Oklahoma State University
Wheat prices are 50 cents lower, now what?
Historically, wheat prices have declined into July/August and then rallied into November/December. During the last six years, wheat prices haven’t followed this pattern
When should wheat be sold?
When to sell wheat may depend on the amount of price risks a producer can take.
Declining wheat stocks and declining prices
Who would-ah-thought that we would have declining and very tight wheat stocks and declining prices?
Three deuces wheat price range
If foreign wheat production is less than expected, wheat prices could increase $1.11. If foreign wheat production is greater than expected, wheat prices could decline around $1.11.
The odds of $5 and $7.50 wheat
The projections also indicate that between June 1, 2014, and May 31, 2015, wheat prices could be as low as $6 or as high as $9.
Drought, freeze, Ukraine equals volatile wheat prices
Given tight stocks, freeze damage, drought conditions, and political uncertainty in the Ukraine, wheat prices should remain relatively strong through June and into July.
Extreme price volatility and selling wheat
Just a few weeks' difference in timing the sale of wheat can result in either a relatively good profit or a relatively large loss.
$1.80 increase in wheat prices may be bad news
2014 harvested wheat can be contracted for harvest delivery $1.80 higher than on February 3. Potentially, higher prices could partially offset lower wheat production.
Four words explain $1 wheat price increase
Wheat stocks are relatively tight, and a tremendous amount of price variability is present in the market.
USDA wheat price outlook projections: fact or fiction
Weather will be the major determinate of production and price. And we know how accurate meteorologists are. Still, we listen to them every day. Weather information is essential in the planning process.
2014/15 wheat marketing-year stocks remain tight
From a management planning view, realize that USDA’s price projection could be correct. If this is the case, a prudent marketing plan may be to sell more wheat than normal at harvest.
Why wheat prices increase?
Unless wheat crop conditions improve, wheat prices are projected to be steady to higher. Below average 2014 HRW wheat production could result in wheat price near $7.
Corn and drought not supporting wheat prices
Unless corn prices dramatically increase and/or there is a severe drought, wheat prices could drop to $5 during the 2014/15 marketing year.
Good news for wheat prices
If you cannot afford to sell wheat for 50 cents below current prices, consider selling all of the wheat now.
The cure for high wheat prices
The expected 2014 June Oklahoma/Texas wheat price is projected to be $6. With good weather and above average production, low $5 wheat is possible.
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