Kim Anderson

Oklahoma State University
A 35 cent above average wheat basis 2
The wheat basis for most of Oklahoma is a minus 7 cents basis the KCBT September wheat contract price. The Texas Panhandle wheat basis is mostly a minus 25 cents. These are about 35 cents above the five-year average.
Should wheat producers store for higher prices? 3
Cash wheat prices have declined from $8 in late January to about $6.80 at this writing (note about 15 cents above when I replied to the email). Since last January, the KC Red Wheat September wheat contract price has declined from $8.72 to $6.91. The cash price declined about $1.40, while futures prices declined $1.81. The KC September basis increased 41 cents.
How much would you risk for $9 wheat? 3
Are wheat producers willing to risk having to sell wheat at $6 for the opportunity to sell wheat at $9? This risk may be avoided by selling wheat for $7.35.
Is this the year to sell or store wheat?
If your marketing strategy has been to sell wheat in one-third increments between harvest and January 1, this may be the year to sell a higher percentage at harvest.
Wheat market prices increase $2.75
Increased price volatility and changes in the marketing-year price trends may require changes in marketing strategies.
Good marketing takes price savvy
Be prepared to recognize and take advantage of wheat pricing opportunities.
Wheat: maybe it’s not that bad?
Current production expectations indicate that the average June 2013 wheat price is expected to be near $7.
Is it too late to price harvest wheat?
If a producer can’t afford to sell wheat for, say, $6.25, than $6.95 is a good opportunity to forward price wheat.
A wheat and corn weather market
Corn prices are dependent on corn production. Wheat prices are dependent on wheat production and corn production. Both wheat and corn production are dependent on the weather.
Wheat’s weather forecast problem
Weather continues to be dominant factor in wheat market.
Some producers still own 2012 harvested wheat
Hindsight is nearly always 20/20. If prices could have been know with certainty, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle wheat would have been sold on July 20, 2012 for about $9 per bushel. Wheat prices had increased from $6 on June 1 to $9 on July 20, 2012.
HRW Wheat’s moisture problem
A problem for hard red winter (HRW) wheat is that it has not had and does not have enough moisture. Yet, some HRW wheat may have received moisture too late. Winter wheat that is just now germinating has a low yield potential
Wheat’s supply problem 1
At this writing, the Kansas City Board of Trade March contract price is $8.00, and the July contract price is $8.20. Cash prices in Oklahoma and Texas are around $7.60. Wheat may be forward contracted for about 55 cents less than the KCBT July wheat contract price. The Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle average annual price is about $6.40.
Wheat producers boxed into a corner
The drought in the hard red winter (HRW) wheat area may have producers “boxed into a corner.” Some producers think that they want one of two outcomes. The preferred outcome is favorable weather, high wheat yields, and a good price. The alternate outcome may be zero or nearly zero production and then collecting crop revenue insurance. In economist language, these are called “corner” or “extreme” solutions.
Wheat’s corn price problem
The Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) December wheat contract price is about 43 cents higher than the KCBT March contract price. This implies that Kansas City wheat prices are expected to increase 43 cents between now and December.
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