Kim Anderson

Oklahoma State University
Wheat prices: 72 up and 72 down
Seventy-two cents up in five weeks was a golden opportunity for wheat producers. Seventy-two cents down in 19 days took it away.
Prices: wheat down, corn up, soybeans really up.
The Kansas City December wheat futures contract price fell another 3 cents (a total of 7 cents). The CBT December corn futures price gained another eight cents. The corn price change did break the price downtrend, at least for the time being.
Price impacts of promising wheat crop
Higher expected wheat production and a lot more corn are expected to result in a $2 decline in harvest prices.
wheat harvest
$17 per bushel wheat?
Unless Argentina’s and/or Australia’s wheat productions are significantly less than expected and/or U.S. 2014 winter wheat production expectations are well below average, wheat prices are not expected to increase more than another 50 to 60 cents per bushel.
Government shutdown expected to have small price impact
Some commercial sources may provide (replace) much of USDA’s reported data. However, the general consensus is that commercial sources may not be as accurate, consistent, and unbiased as what USDA provides.
Sell wheat as prices increase
After the Kansas City (KC) December wheat contract price went above the $7.07 price resistance level, the contract price broke the $7.28 resistance in three days and challenged the $7.60 resistance in six days. KC December wheat prices increased from $7.05 to $7.57.
wheat harvest
You don’t short a sleeping market
Wheat export demand has remained relatively strong. At this writing, the bushels of all classes of wheat sold for export is 38 percent greater than at this time last year. The amount of hard red winter wheat sold for export is 32 percent greater than last year, and for soft red winter wheat sold for export, the amount is 210 percent higher than last year.
wheat harvest
Wheat prices on a slippery slope
Larger wheat and corn crops are pressuring wheat prices and could push KC December wheat possibly down to contract $6.30 per bushel. The price risk is that the seasonal price trend is normally set in late-August and early-September.
wheat harvest
Wheat planning and planting time not too early to think about price
As planting time nears, Southwest wheat producers begin thinking about marketing the 2014 crop.
Wheat stocks the tightest since 2007
U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to be the lowest since the 2007/08 marketing year but world production will weigh down the markets.
A 35 cent above average wheat basis 2
The wheat basis for most of Oklahoma is a minus 7 cents basis the KCBT September wheat contract price. The Texas Panhandle wheat basis is mostly a minus 25 cents. These are about 35 cents above the five-year average.
Should wheat producers store for higher prices? 3
Cash wheat prices have declined from $8 in late January to about $6.80 at this writing (note about 15 cents above when I replied to the email). Since last January, the KC Red Wheat September wheat contract price has declined from $8.72 to $6.91. The cash price declined about $1.40, while futures prices declined $1.81. The KC September basis increased 41 cents.
How much would you risk for $9 wheat? 3
Are wheat producers willing to risk having to sell wheat at $6 for the opportunity to sell wheat at $9? This risk may be avoided by selling wheat for $7.35.
Is this the year to sell or store wheat?
If your marketing strategy has been to sell wheat in one-third increments between harvest and January 1, this may be the year to sell a higher percentage at harvest.
Wheat market prices increase $2.75
Increased price volatility and changes in the marketing-year price trends may require changes in marketing strategies.
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