Kim Anderson

Oklahoma State University
Wheat prices indicate zero profit per acre.
Wheat may be forward contracted for harvest delivery for about 30 cents less than the KC July wheat contract price. The basis range is from a minus 50 cents (southern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle) to a minus 15 cents (north central Oklahoma). Using a KC July wheat contract price of $5.65, the harvest forward contract price would be $5.35 ($5.65 - $0.30).
Oil and corn prices a lesson to wheat producers
By the end of September 2014, wheat prices had fallen to $5.30, which is not nearly as low as wheat prices could go.
Harvest is best time to sell wheat
Research indicates that for Oklahoma, Texas, and Southwestern Kansas, the single best time to sell wheat year-end and year-out is at harvest
Wheat price trend tilting to the upside
Since the October’s KC March contract low price of $5.54, each price peak has been higher than the last peak, and each price low has been higher than the last low price.
Wheat prices: 88 up and 14 down
A 10 cent increase in the wheat basis occurred on December 3, which was probably due to lower transportation rates.
Wheat production costs and price
Production costs are essential to determine what the market price means to the farm enterprise.
Weakness in wheat prices is not good
The good news is that the downtrend that began in mid-June has been broken. The bad news is that the KC wheat contract price has not been above $6.20 to establish an uptrend,
Numbers don’t lie but can they be deceiving?
The key is having product to sell with the cost of production below the price times quantity produced.
How low can wheat prices go?
If producers want to use the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO), they must sign up for SCO with their crop insurance agent by September 30, 2014.
2014 government wheat program and selling wheat
The 2014 government program may affect what crops are produced but should not affect how the crops are sold.
Wheat versus Wheat/Canola
In June of 1990 I had the opportunity to tour Russian and Ukraine winter grain farms and visit with the farm managers. They all said that mono-cropping wheat was not good for the land and that yields could be increased by using crop rotation. My comment was that Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle farmers didn’t have a choice except to mono-crop wheat.
$7 wheat on November 20, 2014
To break the wheat price downtrend, the KC September wheat contract price needs to close above $6.60.
Wheat prices are 50 cents lower, now what?
Historically, wheat prices have declined into July/August and then rallied into November/December. During the last six years, wheat prices haven’t followed this pattern
When should wheat be sold?
When to sell wheat may depend on the amount of price risks a producer can take.
Declining wheat stocks and declining prices
Who would-ah-thought that we would have declining and very tight wheat stocks and declining prices?
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