What is in this article?:
- Exports, uncertainty and size of ongoing food crisis
- 850 million hungry
- Models may overestimate grain exports and prices
- Many country import only what they can’t produce
- Policies needed to end food crises
850 million hungry
While the Headey and Fan report focused on the 2006-2008 run-up in the price of agricultural commodities and subsequently food prices we could not ignore the reality that even before the crisis many people found themselves standing on the outside of the food market. The number of the world’s hungry has remained locked at about 850 million people over the last 45 years.
For them, every day has been a food crisis, with some days and years being worse than others. As we acknowledge that the 2006-2008 food crisis added some 200 million people to the roll of the chronically hungry and seek to find ways to prevent a repeat, we must not forget the other 800 million.
Chronic hunger has consequences, including high infant mortality rates, high under age 5 mortality rates, stunted physical and intellectual development, diminished access to education as children are needed to work at home. Women and girls have suffered the effects of chronic hunger to a greater extent that men and boys.
Though agricultural commodity prices fell following their 2008 peak, they are currently on the rise, again placing additional people at risk of hunger. As we were writing this column, we read about the food riots in Algeria. If 2008 is any measure they will not be the last to take place this year.
If we are to take the world food crisis seriously, we need to look not only at policies that will prevent a repeat of the 2006-2008 food crisis, we need to identify policies that will end the food crisis for the other 800 million people.
Daryll E. Ray holds the Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy, Institute of Agriculture, University of Tennessee, and is the Director of UT’s Agricultural Policy Analysis Center (APAC). Harwood D. Schaffer is a Research Assistant Professor at APAC. (865) 974-7407begin_of_the_skype_highlightinend_of_the_skype_highlighting; Fax: (865) 974-7298;