He said Democrats have lost ground with “the decline of Blue Dog Democrats. They lost seats and lost influence.” An ideological minority and Gerrymandered seats also create challenges for Democrats in congressional races and could push needed gains to 35 or 40 seats to take control of the House.

“Republicans have a redistricting edge, especially in Virginia and North Carolina, where they may have saved 12 seats,” Wasserman said.

He said Democrats could have lost more Senate seats in 2008 except only one-third were up for re-election. Republicans may lose Missouri, he said, where Todd Akin tries to overcome a critical misstep during the summer with comments concerning rape and abortion. He currently trails Claire McCaskill by a significant margin. “McCaskill is about a 60 percent favorite now,” Wasserman said.

He said Republicans need to take 4 seats from “red states,” to gain control of the Senate.

“But the Democrats could pick up a couple of seats, too, so I think it could be 50/50.”

Fifty/fifty might be welcome odds for a farmer hoping for rain but he’s likely not going to shut off the irrigation pump until clouds begin rolling in. At equal odds some folks may go all in but with something as unpredictable as an angry electorate, the best bet might be to keep your money in your pocket.