What is in this article?:
- Corn market explosive, up or down
- Critical information
New information is coming out to help give you a pretty good idea if the USDA production number should be adjusted.
Within the objective yield states the farmer surveys were farther below the USDA objective surveys than normal, and this was critical information.
It was the farmer surveys that pulled the yield down so low. The farmer projected yield per acre was used to help estimate the weight of the ears.
In the Sept. 1 survey to be released Sept. 12, the objective survey is done in the same 10 states, but a larger number of samples are taken and more information is available from the samples.
On Aug. 11 the USDA also released their updated Supply/Demand Report.
The USDA raised the estimated 2010-11 ending stocks number for the second straight month since the June stocks report.
Corn used for ethanol was lowered 30 million bushels and exports were lowered 50 million bushels as the weekly export rate slowed.
This put the ending stocks to use ratio at 7.1 percent, very tight, but not super tight as it had been.
However, even with the larger 2011-12 beginning stocks, the projected drop in production means very tight 2011-12 ending stocks, even after lowering projected use.
Projected supply was lowered about 600 million bushels. Projected use was lowered 240 million bushels, partially because that uses up most of the corn we are projected to have.
The 2011-12 corn ending stocks to use is projected to be an extremely tight 5.4 percent, and world stocks are projected to be very tight as well. The market will not really allow ending stocks to use to go below 5 percent. Price will go up until we have about that much left over.
This puts us in an explosive situation, up or down.
If the September report shows a lower projected corn yield, prices up, and vice versa.
As of this writing, December 2011 corn futures were at $7.34, new highs for the new crop contract. If you have not priced much or any new crop corn, consider pricing some at these levels.
If you have already priced a good deal, consider waiting for the report, or closer to the report. The market will stay volatile, so in either case have pricing points identified. Think of a risk management approach for much of your pricing.