U.S. wheat exports will reach 31.3 million metric tons (MMT) in 2011/12, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

USDA increased its U.S. export forecast in itsJuly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) by 2.7 MMT from last month’s estimate, primarily due to reduced Canadian supplies and a projected increase in U.S. production.

While that volume would be 11 percent below 2010/11 exports, it would also be eight percent above the five-year average. USDA increased its total 2011/12 U.S. production outlook by 1.3 MMT from its June forecast to 57.3 MMT.

The culprit in Canada is the same unusually cool, wet conditions that plagued U.S. farmers in the northern plains.

USDA pegged 2011/12 Canadian wheat production at 21.5 MMT, down sharply from last month’s projected 25 MMT and well below the five-year average of 24.8 MMT.

Total estimated supplies will reach 28.1 MMT, 13 percent below the five-year average. Projected Canadian exports are 16.0 MMT or 2.5 MMT less than the June forecast.

If realized, 2011/12 Canadian wheat exports would fall by three percent from 2010/11 and reach the lowest level since 2004/05 when Canada exported 14.9 MMT.