What is in this article?:
- Cattlemen show surprise interest in expansion
- Feed prices expected to moderate
- The big picture is that beef cow numbers dropped 3 percent last year, and this will mean a smaller calf crop in 2012 that will keep cattle slaughter small for 2013 and 2014.
- If heifer retention continues to grow in 2012 and 2013, beef supplies will not increase until 2015.
- So the modest heifer retention now is actually a price-enhancing factor in the short-run with the bearish implications not occurring until 2015 and beyond.
Although beef supplies will be very short for several more years, the USDA's Cattle report indicates that the very early stages of beef cattle expansion have begun as beef heifer retention has increased a modest 1 percent, said Chris Hurt, a Purdue University Extension economist.
"However, the big picture is that beef cow numbers dropped 3 percent last year, and this will mean a smaller calf crop in 2012 that will keep cattle slaughter small for 2013 and 2014.
“If producers follow through with more heifer retention in 2012 and 2013, slaughter supplies will decline over the next two years and increase finished cattle prices even more," he said.
There have been two dominant drivers of cow numbers in recent years.
The first was the dramatic increases in feed prices after calendar year 2007. The beef industry couldn't pass higher feed costs on to consumers in 2008 and 2009 but instead had to suffer negative margins.
Poor returns led to liquidation of beef cows, which has continued into the current report.
The second large driver was the drought in the southern Plains in recent years that caused further liquidation of cows due to lack of pasture and forages.
"The impact of these two factors resulted in U.S. beef cow numbers dropping 3 million head, or 9 percent, since 2007.
“Every region of the country has reduced beef cow numbers since 2007," he added.
In the past year, the impact of the drought was felt most heavily in Texas where beef cow numbers were down 660,000, representing 13 percent of their herd.
The second largest impact was in Oklahoma where the cow herd was reduced by 288,000 head, or 14 percent, last year.
The cows that were liquidated from the southern Plains in 2011 went in two directions.
"First, cow slaughter was high all year, indicating that many went directly to packers. However, a portion moved to areas that had better pastures and forage supplies.
“The biggest recipient was likely Nebraska where cow numbers were up 112,000 last year, but also Iowa with cow numbers up 55,000 and Colorado up 22,000 head," he said.
There are now indications that the longer-term trend of cow liquidation driven by high feed prices may be coming to an end. This is because beef supplies have now adjusted downward and cattle prices have adjusted sharply higher.