But recent news stories out of South America suggest that the scenario we just discussed is anything but theoretical. With the timely arrival of late winter rains in Brazil, the 2012-2013 soybean crop could allow farmers there to eclipse the U.S. as the world’s largest soybean producer.

Current prices give Brazilian farmers every incentive to sharply increase acres (well hectares to them) planted to soybeans, while adopting a strategy that will maximize their chances of sowing second crop corn as soon as the beans come out of the field. Forecasters are expecting soybean planted area to increase by 8 percent to 12 percent from last year.

Combine that with a return to trendline corn and soybean yields in the U.S. and we could see prices that bring a smile to those who have to buy feed for their livestock, not to mention industrial users. For the current crop year, U.S. farmers planted 96.4 billion acres to corn, exceeding the 95.4 million acres planted in 1944 at the height of WWII. With current high prices, there is every reason to believe that U.S. farmers will plant something close to 96.4 billion acres in the coming year. And, if the yields are in the vicinity of the 166 bushels per acre expected this year, we could easily go from a 10.7 billion-bushel crop in 2012 to a 16 billion-bushel crop in 2013.

With the first and second corn crop that could come out of Brazil, along with an ordinary crop from Argentina, we could go from a short crop and high prices this year to a massive crop and prices that tickle the loan rate next year.

But it gets worse. While high prices can bring fairly rapid increases in acreage, those acres wring out exceedingly slowly when prices fall, even at prices well below the full cost of production. Everyone hangs in there year after year, hoping that someone else will suffer from a drought and they will be able to reap the resulting high prices.

A review of agricultural history suggests that extended periods of over production and low prices are the norm, interrupted by shorter periods of high prices.

Daryll E. Ray holds the Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy, Institute of Agriculture, University of Tennessee, and is the Director of UT’s Agricultural Policy Analysis Center (APAC). Harwood D. Schaffer is a Research Assistant Professor at APAC. (865) 974-7407; Fax: (865) 974-7298; dray@utk.edu  and hdschaffer@utk.edu;  http://www.agpolicy.org.