What is in this article?:
- TFI analyst on fertilizer markets, history, 2011
- Setting the stage
- China/India/Brazil
- Potash/shipping/hoarding
- Record price fallout
- 2010 recap
- 2011 bullet points
- NCGA-sponsored Webinar focuses on fertilizer industry history and expectation for 2011.
- Use of potash by India and China expected to grow at quicker pace than use of nitrogen and phosphate.
- Factors point to increases in long-term fertilizer demand.
Until recent years, fertilizer prices had held relatively steady for U.S. farmers. Then, in 2008, fertilizer prices made a rapid, alarming ascent before hitting record levels in the fall.
Several years later, still-skittish farmers haven’t forgotten that 2008 price run-up and many wonder what 2011 might bring. The National Corn Growers Association tried to provide growers some answers during a Dec. 16 Webinar.
“We have nearly 80 million new mouths to feed annually,” said Harry Vroomen, vice president of economic services at The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). Heading into 2011, “world grain stocks are relatively low and U.S. farm income is strong. The world and United States will be growing out of recession.”
It should be noted that because TFI represents the fertilizer industry, the U.S. Department of Justice “prohibits us from making explicit fertilizer price forecasts. … But I will discuss the supply/demand factors driving the market.”
