The pace of the economic recovery, India’s decision on exports, China’s actions on rebuilding reserves and the relation of cotton price and profit potential to competing crops all weigh on markets going into fall and winter and on 2011 planting decisions.

But so far, so good, says Gary Adams, vice president for economic and policy analysis for the National Cotton Council.

“The situation now is far different from recent years,” Adams said at the American Cotton Producers/Cotton Foundation joint meeting Tuesday in Lubbock, Texas. “Optimism has steadily increased since late 2009,” Adams said.

He said October futures were trading in the 87 cents per pound range. “The Far East index has been in line as well.” He said December 2010 futures made runs at 80 cents several times during the year but would back off into the 70s. Until recently. “The last few weeks December has been in the 83 cents range.”

Stocks, he said, have been “tighter than anticipated. China stocks are also tight.”