The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provided no surprises with the release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Wednesday.
The report made minor adjustments to the world wheat outlook, all of which were within analysts’ expectations. Estimated world supply increased 4 million metric tons (MMT) in November to 1.013 billion metric tons, a 3 percent increase from 2010/2011. All three factors that contribute to world supply — carry-in stocks, production and imports — increased in November.
The world production forecast increased 2.1 MMT to 683 MMT, which would be the second largest crop on record if realized. Kazakhstan’s production estimate accounted for 2 MMT of the total increase, now forecast to produce 21 MMT.
The European Union’s production estimate also increased, up 1.2 MMT from last month and 1 percent greater than last year. Argentina’s production forecast declined 500,000 MT to 13.0 MMT, 16 percent lower than last year.
Increased consumption and trade estimates offset the increase in supply, resulting in only a 13,000 MT increase in world ending stocks to 203 MMT. Increased estimates of feed use once again contributed to an increase in total wheat demand.
World feed use
Estimated world feed use increased 900,000 MT this month to 126 MMT, a 12 percent increase from last year and the highest demand for feed since 1990/1991. Total world consumption jumped 2.4 MMT to 677 MMT, which would set a record for the fourth straight year.
World trade estimates increased 2 MMT this month to 137 MMT, the second highest trading volume ever and 5 percent greater than last year, if realized. Increased imports into China, North Africa and Brazil account for much of the increased global demand with the European Union and Russia expected to meet most of that incremental trade.
The U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook remained mostly unchanged from last month. A decrease to production estimates of 240,000 MT to 54.4 MMT was the only change, decreasing ending stocks by the same margin to 22.6 MMT.
USDA re-surveyed spring wheat and durum producers in five states in the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest following the Sept. 30 Small Grains Report. Farmers there harvested a substantial portion of the crop later than usual due to weather-delayed plantings.
The survey results prompted USDA to reduce hard red spring (HRS) production estimates by 190,000 MT to 10.8 MMT and durum by 50,000 MT to 1.36 MMT.
Durum production is estimated at its second lowest level in 30 years, down 53 percent from last year and 43 percent below the 10-year average. Increased white wheat production estimates helped slightly offset reductions in HRS and durum. White wheat estimates increased 30,000 MT to 8.55 MMT, 20 percent greater than the 10-year average thanks to nearly ideal growing conditions.
U.S. Wheat Associates updates its Supply and Demand Report every month with the latest USDA estimates.
The new report is at http://www.uswheat.org/reports.
The full WASDE is available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.