Flooding in the Mid-South and drought in Texas have reduced U.S. rice and cotton crops, according to USDA’s June 9 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
USDA reduced expected U.S. cotton production by 1 million bales to 17 million bales, due mainly to expected higher abandonment resulting from the increased severity of the drought in the Southwest. Exports were reduced 500,000 bales to 13 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio of 15 percent is above 2010-11, but remains the second lowest since 1995-96.
Forecast consumption by China was reduced 500,000 bales, as the recent slow pace of imports indicates sluggish demand now and early in the new marketing year. World ending stocks were raised marginally.
U.S. 2011-12 rice production is projected by USDA at 199.5 million hundredweight, down 11.5 million from last month due to a decrease in planted area. This is the smallest crop since 2007-08. Long-grain production was lowered 10.5 million hundredweight to 134 million hundredweight, while combined medium-and short-grain production is lowered 1 million to 65.5 million.
All rice planted area was lowered 168,000 acres to 2.85 million acres due to the impact of Mississippi River Delta flooding in the Mid-South, with long-grain rice in Arkansas and Missouri accounting for most of the decline. The all rice average yield is projected at 7,040 pounds per acre, up fractionally from last month.
The 2011-12 total use projection was lowered 4 million hundredweight to 232 million due to decreases in both domestic and residual use and in exports. Exports were lowered 3 million hundredweight – all in long-grain rice – to 106 million hundredweight. The rough rice export projection was reduced 1 million hundredweight to 39 million hundredweight. Ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 42.1 million hundredweight, down 6.5 million or 13 percent from a month ago, and down 14.5 million or 26 percent from 2010-11.
Global rice production is projected at a record 456.4 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month’s forecast, primarily due to a decrease for China. Global rice consumption for 2011-12 was lowered 800,000 tons, primarily due to lower consumption expected in China. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 94.9 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month, due primarily to reductions for China and the United States.
U.S. corn planted area for 2011-12 is lowered 1.5 million acres from March intentions to 90.7 million acres due to planting delays through early June in the eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains.
Forecast harvested area was lowered 1.9 million acres, to 83.2 million with the additional 400,000-acre reduction reflecting early information about May flooding in the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and June flooding along the Missouri River valley. Production is projected at 13.2 billion bushels, down 305 million from last month, but still a record, and up 753 million from 2010-11.
Expected U.S. corn ending stocks are down 205 million bushels to 695 million bushels. Global corn stocks are projected at 111.9 million tons, the lowest since 2006-07.
USDA did not change its soybean production forecast from last month, at 3.285 billion bushels, noting “Although adverse weather has slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production estimates are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season.” In March, USDA projected U.S. soybean acres at 76.6 million acres.
Soybean exports for 2010-11 were reduced 10 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels reflecting the export pace to date and reduced global import demand. U.S. soybean exports for 2011-12 are reduced 20 million bushels to 1.52 billion bushels, reflecting increased competition from South America. Ending stocks for 2011-12 were increased 30 million bushels to 190 million.
All wheat production for 2011-12 is forecast at 2.058 billion bushels, 15 million higher than last month. The winter wheat production forecast was raised 26 million bushels.
U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected 15 million bushels lower at 687 million bushels, but remain above the 10-year average.
World wheat production is projected 5.2 million tons lower for 2011-12, at 664.3 million tons. This would be the third highest on record and up 16.1 million from 2010-11. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected 3 million tons higher.