USDA raised estimated production for cotton, corn and soybeans in its Nov. 9 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and lowered rice production on lower yields. Rice yield, however, is expected to be a record. World cotton ending stocks now exceed 80 million bales.
Estimated U.S. cotton production was raised 160,000 bales, to 17.45 million bales, with increases in the Southeast and Delta more than offsetting a reduction for the Southwest. Ending stocks were raised 100,000 bales to 5.8 million bales.
U.S. cotton yield is expected to average 802 pounds per acre. Upland cotton production is forecast at 16.8 million bales, up 14 percent from 2011. Pima cotton production is forecast at 657,000 bales.
World production was raised 500,000 bales, reflecting increases for Uzbekistan, the United States, and some African countries. World consumption was reduced 500,000 bales, mainly in China, where free supplies are tightening due to the accumulation of cotton in the national reserve.
World trade is raised marginally from last month. Forecast world ending stocks now exceed 80 million bales.
Corn and grain sorghum
Forecast corn production for 2012-13 was raised 19 million bushels with a 0.3-bushel increase in corn yield to 122.3 bushels per acre. Sorghum production is forecast 4 million bushels higher, also on a higher yield. Corn food, seed, and industrial use for 2012-13 was raised 17 million bushels. Corn ending stocks are projected 28 million bushels higher at 647 million.
U.S. rice production is forecast at 198.5 million hundredweight, 300,000 hundredweight below last month due to a decrease in yield. Average all rice yield is still estimated at a record 7,417 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from last month.
Long-grain rice production was lowered 200,000 hundredweight to 139.8 million, and combined medium- and short-grain production was lowered 100,000 to 58.7 million. Forecast imports were raised 1 million hundredweight to 20.5 million, all in long-grain.
U.S. exports were raised 3 million hundredweight to 103 million with long-grain exports raised 4 million and combined medium- and short-grain exports lowered 1 million.
Rice ending stocks are forecast at 30.1 million hundredweight, down 2.3 million from a month ago, and a decrease of 11 million from the previous year.
World rice production is lowered 800,000 tons to 464.3 million, due mostly to lower production forecasts for Bangladesh, Thailand, and South Korea. Global 2012- 13 ending stocks are projected at 102.2 million tons, up 300,000 from last month.
U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.971 billion bushels, up 111 million from last month. Yield is forecast at 39.3 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels as several states show the benefit of late-season rainfall.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The average farm price is projected at $13.90 to $15.90 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range.
Peanut yield was raised 126 pounds from last month, to 4,058 pounds per acre. Yields were the same or higher than last month’s estimates in every peanut-producing state. U.S. production is estimated at 6.47 billion pounds.
Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012- 13 were raised 50 million bushels and exports were projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments, and an outlook for increased foreign competition.
Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 1.9 million tons lower. Global wheat trade is raised for 2012-13, reflecting the continuation of strong shipments from the Black Sea region and India, and the growing competiveness of wheat from the EU-27.
At the projected 174.2 million tons, global stocks remain 46 million tons above the recent low in 2007-08.