Most everyone knows that forecasting the weather in advance is a crapshoot. Like in Vegas, you can roll the dice as many times as you want but getting a seven or eleven every few roles doesn't make you a winner all the time.

From the East Coast to the West and from the southern border to Canada, spring is finally shaping up for farmers. In the south much of the seed has already hit the soil and in south Texas the corn and sorghum are reaching knee high in a few places.

Tractors are rolling and the fields are active, or soon will be in most farming states as spring blossoms across the nation. Even early spring grasses and wildflowers are reaching for the sky in some places as working day gets longer as the sun slower to set.

With all this work and preparation going on, most farmers are too busy to think about anything farther down the road than next week or so. But while few may be talking about it, just about every farmer is wondering what the weather will hold in store as the spring season progresses and the heat of summer quickly approaches.

The general forecast is calling for continuing drought for the West and Southwest, including large parts of Texas. But the National Weather Service, independent weather forecasters and even university weather scientists are beginning to hint at the probability of a developing El Niño, or ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) event in the Pacific by mid-to-late summer this year that could bring some weather changes to the Southwest, including an increased chance of rain in the mountains.

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The National Weather Climate Prediction Center is saying the chances for the odds of an El Niño return now stands at about 50-50, but other meteorologists are saying conditions are improving that could increase those chances in the weeks ahead.

The phenomenon known as ENSO is characterized by fluctuations in the water temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean. An El Niño means warmer than normal water while a La Niña provides cooler than normal water.