Within the last two weeks, wheat prices have declined 50 cents, regained 10 cents, and then lost 18 cents. The Kansas City September wheat contract price was at $7.41 and, at this writing, is at $6.687. On May 7, the KC September wheat contract price peaked at $8.50. Is the price going to go back up? Unless things change, No!

Historically, wheat prices have declined into July/August and then rallied into November/December. During the last six years, wheat prices haven’t followed this pattern. In five of the last six years (2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), the best times to sell wheat were in June, August, and September. During the 2010/11 marketing year, prices were highest in February and April.

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Historically in short crop years, prices tend to peak early. However, with the U.S. only producing about 7.7 percent of the world’s wheat crop and exporting only 17 percent of the world’s wheat exports, the marketing year price trend is normally set during the late-August/September time period. Price trends are determined more by foreign wheat production and supply than U.S. conditions.

The KC September 2014 wheat contract price has support at about $6.67 and resistance at $7 and at $7.70. Price closes below $6.67 would indicate a price target of about $6.40. Closes below $6.40 would indicate a price target of $6.09.

Oklahoma and Texas cash wheat prices are mostly 15 cents to 25 cents less than the KC September wheat contract price.