Kim Anderson

Kim
Anderson
Oklahoma State University
Articles
Positive signals amid mostly negative wheat news
For the 2016/17 wheat marketing year, the world price is projected to be $3.70.
Market offering $3.80 for June 2017 wheat
Wheat-for-grain-only budgets for north central Oklahoma estimate total operating (out–of-pocket) costs to be $194 per acre.
Low wheat prices need to hang around
Wheat prices will not increase until world production declines.
Marketing strategies when wheat’s at 17-year low
The current market supply and demand situation doesn’t support higher wheat prices.
Minus $1.25 wheat basis — and that may be good
If wheat is hedged (owned in storage and sold using the KC December contract) and the basis remains at a minus $1.25, there would be no loss in the net price.
“Biggest Ever Russian Grain Crop”
The market’s price reaction—prices remaining in the current sideways pattern rather than continuing the downtrend—is good news.
Wheat producers between a rock and a hard place
The question is, do you accept the current low price (rock) or risk lower prices to take a chance on higher prices (hard place)?
Wheat producers expecting higher returns in 2016 than 2015
The Oklahoma wheat tour estimated 2016 Oklahoma wheat production to be 129 million bushels.
Two connected stories: The KC July wheat contract price and the basis
When wheat prices got low, the basis became the most important story.
Yield and quality more important than price
At this writing, the KC July wheat contract price is $4.77. For harvest-delivered wheat, Oklahoma elevators are offering between minus 75 cents and minus 50 cents basis.
Either you’re a wheat farmer…or you’re not
After the recent freeze, a relatively large wheat producer posted that they had lost five out of the last six wheat crops. “It’s like two farmers were talking. One says, ‘If it doesn’t rain, I’ll need to rob a bank.’ The other replies, ‘If it doesn’t rain, I will have robbed a bank.’”
Wheat prices: A slow grind down, but a bottom may be near
The wheat market appears to be in a “Catch-22.” There are few reasons for prices to go lower. There may be fewer market reasons for prices to go higher
The prognosis for wheat prices: not so good
Elevators are offering from minus 60 cents to minus 46 cents basis the KC July 2016 wheat contract price for 2016 harvest-delivered wheat.
For wheat: A bad news and good news scenario
For wheat prices to go above the cost of production, world wheat production must decline.
Hard red winter wheat production in 2016 expected to be less than 2015
The January 2016 report indicated that January 2016 wheat growing conditions are better than growing conditions in January 2015.
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