Kim Anderson

Oklahoma State University
Factors to use in wheat production/pricing decisions
Forward contract prices are below total operating costs and nowhere near total costs.
KC wheat contract price above $6.00?
Can KC wheat contract prices reach $6.00 by April or May? Yes. But it would take a big change (loss) in 2016 world production expectations, and probably a lower dollar index.
If wheat prices can hold out until January 15, 2016…
Wheat prices just do not have much potential to change very much until after January 15, 2016.
$4 wheat: Will it be $3.30 wheat?
U.S. agriculture pays a price to have a relatively strong economy. Since June 2014, the index of the U.S. dollar against major currencies has increased from 80.4 to 100.7.
When will wheat prices increase? It depends…
Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices will go above $6.30 when world wheat production is below 25.4 billion bushels.
Making money with low wheat prices nearly impossible
Research has shown that managing cost has the biggest impact on profit, and that managing yield has the next highest impact. Times do occur when making a profit is simply not possible.
87 percent chance of wheat price above cost of production
Depending on the farm, the variable (out of pocket) cost of production may be between $3.75 and $5.25 per bushel.
Here’s how to take guesswork out of selling wheat
Two marketing strategies take the guesswork and emotion out of selling wheat.
Low prices and crop insurance
Producers in Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region have until September 30 to buy Multi-peril Crop Insurance .
January and June 2016 wheat prices
At this writing, cash wheat prices in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle range from about $4.25 in southern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to about $4.50 in central and northern Oklahoma. At mid-July, prices ranged between $5.50 and $5.90.
Will wheat prices reach $6?
The odds of $6 wheat during the next six months in Oklahoma and Texas are about 10 percent.
Surprise, surprise – 95 cents in seven days
If you’re surprised by a higher price for wheat, it is probably wise to capture some of it.
Higher production, lower price, higher returns
Current wheat price/production situation compared to the 2014 price/production situation shows that yield is more important than price..
How to sell the 2015 wheat crop
Of the 29 years, selling wheat at harvest (Sell 6/20) was the “best” strategy 12 times
Higher production and higher prices
Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas are not the only wheat production areas that have experienced higher production expectations due to timely rains
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