Kim Anderson

Oklahoma State University
Higher production, lower price, higher returns
Current wheat price/production situation compared to the 2014 price/production situation shows that yield is more important than price..
How to sell the 2015 wheat crop
Of the 29 years, selling wheat at harvest (Sell 6/20) was the “best” strategy 12 times
Higher production and higher prices
Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas are not the only wheat production areas that have experienced higher production expectations due to timely rains
How to sell wheat in 596 words
There is no perfect way to sell wheat.
Rain makes grain and damages prices
Reports are surfacing that recent rains have saved a dying wheat crop. Some producers in Garfield County, Okla., report the rain improved their wheat yield potential from 15 bushels per acre to 24 bushels. The normal yield is 40 bushels per acre.
Wheat prices predicted to double but weather will be determining factor
Wheat prices may be (and probably will be) higher than current prices. But $10-plus wheat is just not in the cards.
Wheat’s spring price rally
The dollar index is not the reason for the wheat price rally.
Wheat and grain prices established in bottom tier
Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices may stay in the $4.25 to $5.75 price range, which is in the bottom tier of prices.
PLC versus ARC may depend on the dollar index
The most important and uncertain market factor may be the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, which will likely influence whether PLC or ARC will be the most profitable decision.
$5.10 wheat marketing year average price
A major difference between 2010/11 and 2015/16 is the value of the dollar compared to other major currencies
Market funds messing with wheat prices
Market factors (such as the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies) impact wheat prices more than market fund trading.
Higher U.S dollar index, lower wheat prices
Since late June, the price of wheat in Oklahoma and Texas has declined about $1.90 or 27 percent. About 70 percent ($1.33) of the $1.90 price decline may be attributed to the lower dollar value.
Wheat prices indicate zero profit per acre.
Wheat may be forward contracted for harvest delivery for about 30 cents less than the KC July wheat contract price. The basis range is from a minus 50 cents (southern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle) to a minus 15 cents (north central Oklahoma). Using a KC July wheat contract price of $5.65, the harvest forward contract price would be $5.35 ($5.65 - $0.30).
Oil and corn prices a lesson to wheat producers
By the end of September 2014, wheat prices had fallen to $5.30, which is not nearly as low as wheat prices could go.
Harvest is best time to sell wheat
Research indicates that for Oklahoma, Texas, and Southwestern Kansas, the single best time to sell wheat year-end and year-out is at harvest
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