The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provided no surprises with the release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Wednesday.

The report made minor adjustments to the world wheat outlook, all of which were within analysts’ expectations. Estimated world supply increased 4 million metric tons (MMT) in November to 1.013 billion metric tons, a 3 percent increase from 2010/2011. All three factors that contribute to world supply — carry-in stocks, production and imports — increased in November. 



The world production forecast increased 2.1 MMT to 683 MMT, which would be the second largest crop on record if realized. Kazakhstan’s production estimate accounted for 2 MMT of the total increase, now forecast to produce 21 MMT.

The European Union’s production estimate also increased, up 1.2 MMT from last month and 1 percent greater than last year. Argentina’s production forecast declined 500,000 MT to 13.0 MMT, 16 percent lower than last year. 



Increased consumption and trade estimates offset the increase in supply, resulting in only a 13,000 MT increase in world ending stocks to 203 MMT. Increased estimates of feed use once again contributed to an increase in total wheat demand.