What is in this article?:
- Market awaits June corn, soybean stocks report
- Equal to last year
- The level of those stocks will reveal the rate of consumption during the third quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year and the available supply for consumption during the fourth quarter.
The USDA will release the estimates of June 1 corn and soybean inventories on June 29.
The level of those stocks will reveal the rate of consumption during the third quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year and the available supply for consumption during the fourth quarter.
According to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good there is likely to be a wide range of expectations for the June 1 stocks estimate.
"Based partially on the on-going record strong corn basis, we anticipate that feed and residual use of corn during the third quarter was larger than the estimate for last year's use," Good said. "If so, June 1 stocks would be near 3.1 billion bushels and use for the year would be expected to exceed the current USDA projection of 4.55 billion bushels.
"The June 1 stocks estimates take on a little more importance this year due to the relatively tight year-ending inventories projected for both corn and soybeans, even though more early- harvested corn is expected this year. The surprises in recent corn stocks estimates also add some drama to the upcoming report," Good said.
For corn, the estimate of June 1 stocks will reveal the level of feed and residual use during the previous quarter because weekly estimates of exports and domestic ethanol production provide on- going estimates of use in those categories, Good reported.
Based on cumulative marketing year export inspections through May and Census Bureau export estimates through April, exports during the quarter were likely near 390 million bushels. Based on weekly and monthly estimates of ethanol production, total food and industrial uses of corn during the quarter may have been near 1.64 billion bushels.
"Anticipating feed and residual use of corn during the previous quarter is made more difficult by the surprising levels of June 1 stock estimates the past two years and the resulting wide range of implied feed and residual use during the March-May quarter," Good said.
"Use was calculated at 1.273 billion bushels during the March-May quarter in 2010, but at only 716 million bushels last year."
Good said that for the entire 2011-12 marketing year, the USDA projects feed and residual use at 4.55 billion bushels, 243 million bushels less than use of a year ago. "Implied use during the first half of the year was 247 million less than that of a year ago, with all of the decline occurring in the first quarter," he said.