What is in this article?:
- Nine factors that could impact commodity markets this decade
- Additional crop land
- The growth of China's middle class will put more pressure than ever on global agriculture's need to produce, says Jim Wiesemeyer, of Informa Economics.
- Over the next decade, new land is expected to open up for agriculture in countries like Ukraine and Kasakhstan.
- The U.S. government's willingness to deal with its debt will also be a factor in the future, as will politics and policy.
The ability of U.S. producers to feed a burgeoning global population depends on nine crucial factors, according to Jim Wiesemeyer, senior vice-president, Informa Economics, speaking at the National Alliance of Independent Crop Consultants, in Jacksonville, Fla.
Global growth and the rise of the middle class in developing countries.
The shining example — China. Over the last 10 years, real income in China is up 175 percent and dairy consumption is up 212 percent.
China has also fallen hard for the automobile, noted Wiesemeyer. “China did not import a single barrel of oil just a few years ago. Today, they are the second largest world importer. The Chinese are like we were in the 1950s and 1960s, loving cars. And they aren’t going to go back.”
In addition, “China’s purchases of both soybeans and energy forces the United States and other countries to become more efficient and innovative in the use of energy. Now we have a big competitor as a customer.”
The value of the U.S. dollar.
“The best producers tell me they are going to watch the U.S. dollar. Once it bottoms, they are going to be aggressive sellers. That will be the beginning of the tempering of the bull market.”
Worldwide biofuels production.
Europe and the United States are starting to have discussions of how much energy should be utilized from corn and other food products, Wiesemeyer said. “There is still wide support in the United States on corn for ethanol.”
The role of trade, trade liberalization and transportation.
To continue to grow and produce crops “you have to have a sane trade policy and an infrastructure program for throughput, either domestically or to export,” Wiesemeyer said. “(The latter) is where we are going to be wanting over the next few years. The one thing that has made agriculture competitive for decades is our river system, the locks and dams, the ports, the railroads. But this system is in need of a couple of trillion dollars just to keep up. So there are going to be some competitiveness issues in the coming years.”
Energy and agricultural input prices.
These are crucial in making planting decisions.
Developments in biotechnology, yields and precision.
“I’ve been to meetings over the last three months in which the major theme was precision agriculture,” Wiesemeyer said. “One big seed company purchased an equipment company recently that in one field pass can plant up to six varieties of seed. Bottom line, by the end of the decade you will see a fundamental shift in seed technology that will really boost yield potential to serve this growing market.”