The U.S. corn and soybean crops grew larger, while rice production shrank from last month, according to USDA’s July 10 Crop Production Report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
U.S. corn production for 2009-10 is projected at 12.3 billion bushels, up 355 million from last month due to higher estimated area. Feed and residual use for 2009-10 was raised 50 million bushels while food, seed, and industrial use was lowered 35 million bushels. Expected exports were raised 50 million bushels due to the competitiveness of U.S. supplies in the world market. Ending stocks were projected at 1.6 million bushels, up 460 million from last month, but down 220 million from 2008-09. The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price for corn is projected at $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel, down 55 cents on both ends of the range.
Global corn ending stocks were projected at 139.2 million tons, up 13.7 million from last month.
U.S. soybean production was projected at 3.26 billion bushels, up 65 million due to increased harvested area. Soybean yield was projected at 42.6 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are estimated at 250 million bushels, up 40 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009-10 is projected at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel, down 70 cents on both ends of the range.
World soybean production is projected at a record 243.7 million tons, up 2.1 million due mostly to higher production in the United States.
Estimated U.S. cotton area for 2009 was raised marginally, and harvested area is unchanged. Cotton production is estimated at 13.25 million bales, the same as last month. Domestic mill use was unchanged, but exports were reduced 600,000 bales to 10.2 million due to lower U.S. supplies and reduced foreign import demand. Ending stocks were unchanged at 5.6 million bales. The forecast range of 48 to 60 cents per pound for the marketing-year average farm price is the same as last month.
World cotton beginning stocks for 2009 were raised about 800,000 bales, due to adjustments in the 2008-09 balance sheets for several countries. Forecast world production in 2009-10 was reduced marginally, due to reductions for Turkey and Uzbekistan. Estimated world consumption was reduced, with lower use in Pakistan, China, and Thailand. Estimated world trade was lowered about 1 million bales, due to reduced import demand by China, Pakistan, and Thailand. Despite the increase in world stocks from last month, ending stocks are still forecast nearly 7 percent below the beginning level.
U.S. rice production is projected at 211 million hundredweight, 4 percent below last month, but 4 percent above 2008-09. The average all-rice yield for 2009-10 is projected at 7,033 pounds per acre, 1 percent above last month, and 3 percent above 2008-09. Long-grain rice production is projected at 151 million hundredweight, about 11 percent below last month while combined medium- and short-grain rice production was projected at 60 million hundredweight, nearly 18 percent above last month. Beginning stocks for 2009-10 were lowered nearly 7 percent to 21.7 million hundredweight, while imports were lowered about 5 percent to 21 million hundredweight.
U.S. rice exports for 2009-10 were projected at 99 million hundredweight, up 2 percent from last month, and up 1 percent from 2008-09. Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice were raised 13 percent to 26 million hundredweight, while exports of long-grain rice were lowered 1 percent to 73 million. The milled rice export projection was raised 5 percent, while rough rice exports were lowered 3 percent.
The 2009-10 season-average farm price range was raised $2.75 cents per hundredweight on each end to $13.25 to $14.25 per hundredweight compared to $16.05 per hundredweight for 2008-09.
Smaller domestic supplies along with stronger-than-expected global prices will lead to higher U.S. prices in 2009-10, USDA says. The long-grain season-average projected farm price range for 2009-10 was increased $2.50 per hundredweight on each end to $12 to $13 per hundredweight compared to $14.85 per hundredweight in 2008-09. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range was increased $4 per hundredweight to $19.50 to $20.50 per hundredweight compared to $21.50 per hundredweight in 2008-09.
Projected world rice production was raised less than 1 percent from last month. Global exports were raised 500,000 tons. U.S. exports were also increased slightly.
Wheat ending stocks are projected 59 million bushels higher. The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.80 to $5.80 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends of the range.
U.S. exports were increased 5 million bushels and ending stocks were reduced 2 million bushels. Global ending stocks were projected 1.4 million tons lower.