Assuming that the wheat market is an efficient market, the odds are 50 percent that wheat prices will be above $7.75 at harvest. U.S. wheat stocks are relatively tight, hard red winter wheat (HRW) stocks are expected to remain tight throughout the 2014/15 wheat marketing year and the odds of $5 wheat are nearly zero.

Since June 1, 2009, there have been about 1,490 wheat marketing days. Of these 1,490 days, wheat prices were above $7.75 per bushel 289 times (20 percent) and below $5 a bushel 306 times (21 percent). Over a five-year period, these percentages may represent the odds of $7.75 (20 percent) and $5 (21percent) wheat.

The current wheat situation is not average. HRW wheat production will be below the five-year average of 892 million bushels. Also, the odds are that HRW wheat production will be below last year’s 744 million bushels.

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SW production estimates

Oklahoma’s wheat production has been projected to be 66.5 million bushels, compared to a five-year average of 107 million bushels. The 2014 wheat production in Oklahoma is estimated to be 40.5 million bushels below average and 39 million bushels below 2013 production.

Kansas’ 2014 wheat production has been projected to be 261 million bushels compared to a five-year average of 341 million bushels. The 2012 Kansas wheat production was 319 million bushels.

Texas wheat production may be near 44.5 million bushels or 50 percent below the five-year average of 89 million bushels, compared to 62.3 million bushels in 2013 and 49.4 million bushels in 2009.



Colorado can be expected to offset some of the production decline in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Wheat planted acres in Colorado are 26 percent above last year. Colorado’s 2013 wheat production was 98 million bushels. With good growing conditions, Colorado could produce 25 million bushels more than last year, or 123 million bushels.